I read a news story this morning that Thomas Massie has been defeated in the Kentucky Republican primaries. For those of you who are unfamiliar, Massie is a Republican US House Representative from Kentucky, and he's been a bit of a thorn in Trump's side because Massie has the audacity to have opinions and votes that are not in lock step with our illustrious leader. In response to Massie's effrontery, the president made it his personal mission to ensure that Massie was removed from office, and replaced with someone who will kiss the ring. This may come back to haunt our wannabee king. Allow me to explain why:
Elections are really a two part process... the primary elections and the general elections. The political parties select their party candidate during the primaries. In other words, a bunch of Republican (or Democrat, or whatever party, but in this specific case, it's Republican) candidates say "I want to be your next elected official for this political office." Voters who are registered members of that party choose their one candidate during the primaries. Realistically speaking, what tends to happen is that only the most die-hard partisan voters select their party candidate and the end result is that the most rabid partisan is selected as that party's candidate. To rephrase, Republicans usually vote for the most conservative candidate in their primaries, and Democrats select the most liberal candidate. The end result is that you have two hyper-partisan candidates running in the general election.
Here's why Trump's move could come back to haunt him... he just replaced Massie with a yes man... right at the time where the country is showing signs of Trump fatigue. Realistically, Massie could have swayed a good chunk of independent voters in the general election by playing up his willingness to break from the party. This tends to work well during election cycles where we're not voting for president, and it tends to work even better during the second term of a president. As an incumbent, Massie held a statistical advantage for reelection, meaning that Trump would have likely ended up with a Republican representative who would vote accordingly most of the time. Instead, Trump is gambling that his anointed candidate will win the election, despite the fact that both candidates are newcomers, and despite the fact that the country is experiencing Trump fatigue.
I'd like to say that I'm not a guru. In fact, when it comes to elections, I'm more often wrong than right. So take my words with a grain of salt. But I am aware of statistical trends, and this seems like a gamble. It's a bet I wouldn't take if I were POTUS. Yep, this may come back to haunt POTUS. But then again, he's the billionaire president, and I'm just a disgruntled never-Trump constituent.