Whack-A-Mole

Today's post is a brief critique of President Trump's decision to lift US Sanctions on Russian oil.

Let's start with a little back story:  A couple of weeks ago, the US and Israel started a bombing campaign in Iran.  The rationale is beyond the scope of today's post, but that's primarily because the message has been so inconsistent, other than to say we're "winning," that determining the real reason is an unrealistic expectation.

Part of Iran's response to the attack has been to blockade the Straits of Hormuz.  For those of you unfamiliar with the Straits, it's a very narrow body of water that connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea.  Roughly 25% of the world's crude oil passes through this waterway, meaning that Iran's blockade carries a serious, immediate and widespread impact to the rest of the world.

The economic impact has been ... noticeable.  Gas prices in the US have increased by about 20% in the two weeks since Trump took us on this little escapade.  In my neck of the woods, the price of gas has increased by roughly 75 cents per gallon.  In response to this crisis, POTUS has announced that the US will 'temporarily lift sanctions on Russian oil stranded at sea' in order to stabilize energy prices.  In my opinion, this is a game of whack-a-mole.  Let me explain...

The original reason we imposed sanctions on Russia is because Russia invaded Ukraine, and we couldn't let this aggression go unanswered.  Oil is one of Russia's major national resources.  If nobody buys Russian oil, it's harder for them to fund their war efforts against Ukraine.

Fast forward to now... we attacked Iran, and they stopped the flow of oil from the Middle East.  As a result, approximately 35% of the world's oil is unavailable at the moment.  (Russia can produce about 10% of the world's oil.  Combine that with the 25% that flows through the Straits of Hormuz, and you see how I reached that 35%.)  Prices skyrocketed, Americans screamed, and Trump responded by allowing the world to purchase Russian oil.

Now, let me wrap this in a nice pretty bow so everyone can see how this is a giant game of strategic Whack-A-Mole.  Russia invades Ukraine. (Whack!) America doesn't like that, so we impose sanctions on Russian oil. (Whack!) We attack Iran. (Whack!) Iran blocks the Straits of Hormuz, cutting oil supplies further. (Whack!)  We lift the Russian oil sanctions. (Whack!) {Introduce my next prediction for the next whack.  Russia now has money to press their attack on Ukraine.}

This is definitely the behavior of a stable genius.