Wednesday, November 7, 2007

Looking Forward

I've been following our politics and our economy for quite a while. Economics and politics both fascinate me. I'm more informed than most people on the global front as well, but I won't say that I'm an expert. In fact, I won't claim to be an expert at all, but over the next few days I am going to make some predictions for our nation's future.

Today, I'm going to make some predictions for our next presidential election. It's a no-brainer that the Democrats are going to take the White House. The nation is sick of Bush, and for better or worse, when we think Bush, we think Republican. I also believe that even hard-core Republicans are divided, ambivalent, or downright disgusted with their party.

But wait, there's more -- a spoiler named Ron Paul, who has generated a lot of buzz over the grassroots following he's generating. He's not going to win the Republican nomination, but he's generated enough excitement that he could run as an Independent and drive the final nail in the Republican candidate's coffin.

Here's my prediction for the actual contest.
Hillary Clinton will win the Democratic nomination, and she will ask Barak Obama to be her running mate.

Mitt Romney will win the Republican nomination, and he will ask Fred Thompson to be his running mate.

Ron Paul will leave the Republican party and run as an independent.

The race will be closer than most people expect, and it will be schizophrenic. Lots of Democrats will vote Republican because of personal biases. Lots of Christian Right voters will vote Democratic because they'd rather vote for a bad Christian than a good Mormon. As I said before, Ron Paul will siphon many votes from the Republicans. He will make a better showing than people expect.

When I say that the race will be closer than most people expect, I'm not necessarily saying that it will be close. I think that the masses expect a Democratic landslide. They will win by a wide margin, but it won't be as wide as people expect.

Here's how I think the voting will break down.
Popular Vote:
Clinton/Obama - 55%
Romney/Thompson - 35%
Paul - 10%

Electoral Vote:
Clinton/Obama - 60%
Romney/Thompson - 40%
Paul - 0%

I think the Democrats will retain the House and Senate. At the state level, I think that Republicans will regain some of the ground they've lost in the last couple of years.

What do you think? Am I full of crap?

Tune in next time, for my economic predictions.

No comments: